From North Carolina Farms to Global Grocery Shelves

How fruit and vegetable prices have changed over the past three years—and where North Carolina’s produce comes from

For North Carolina consumers, the price of fruits and vegetables at the grocery store is increasingly connected to events far beyond the state’s borders.

Over the past three years, produce prices have moved unevenly. Some commodities have become substantially more expensive, while others have declined or remained relatively stable. At the same time, North Carolina continues to produce significant quantities of fruits and vegetables, even as the U.S. food system relies heavily on imports to maintain year-round supplies.

The result is a grocery market that is simultaneously local, national and global.

The latest federal data show that fresh produce prices are again rising in 2026. In July, U.S. retail prices for fresh fruit were 4.9% higher than a year earlier, while fresh vegetable prices were 6.3% higher. Fresh vegetable prices actually declined 1.6% from June to July, illustrating how quickly produce prices can change.

For North Carolina shoppers, however, the national price statistics are only part of the story.

The other part begins on farms across the state.

North Carolina remains a major agricultural state

North Carolina had approximately 41,300 farm operations covering 8 million acres in 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

The state’s agricultural economy is dominated by livestock and poultry, but fruits and vegetables remain an important part of North Carolina farming.

In 2025, North Carolina produced approximately:

• 18.86 million hundredweight of sweet potatoes

• 48.58 million pounds of blueberries

• 4.03 million hundredweight of watermelons

• 1.62 million hundredweight of cucumbers

• 994,000 hundredweight of cabbage

• 410,000 hundredweight of bell peppers

Sweet potatoes are particularly significant. The 2025 crop had an estimated production value of approximately $391.8 million. Blueberries generated approximately $87.1 million in utilized production value, including $81.5 million from fresh-market blueberries.

The state’s produce industry therefore puts substantial amounts of food into the national marketplace.

But that does not mean North Carolina grocery stores are supplied primarily by North Carolina farms.

The three-year price story

The past three years do not show a simple, uninterrupted increase in fruit and vegetable prices.

Produce markets are affected by harvest conditions, weather, transportation, labor, imports and seasonal availability. Prices can therefore move considerably from one year to the next.

The federal government’s Food Price Outlook provides a useful national benchmark because it tracks retail food prices and producer prices separately.

By 2026, the difference between individual produce categories had become particularly apparent.

In July 2026:

Category	Change from July 2025
Fresh fruit	+4.9%
Fresh vegetables	+6.3%
Fresh potatoes	+3.4%
Fresh lettuce	+7.5%
Fresh tomatoes	+12.8%

At the same time, overall food prices were 3.0% higher than a year earlier, while food purchased at grocery stores was 2.7% higher.

That means produce was running ahead of overall grocery inflation in July.

But the numbers also demonstrate why consumers should be cautious about broad statements that “food prices” or “produce prices” are moving in one direction.

They are not.

North Carolina’s produce market has changed, too

USDA’s North Carolina agricultural statistics show that the value and volume of individual crops can vary substantially from year to year.

For example, North Carolina’s 2024 agricultural statistics recorded approximately 12.9 million hundredweight of utilized sweet potatoes, compared with 18.86 million hundredweight in 2025. Blueberry production was approximately 49.65 million pounds in 2024, compared with 48.58 million pounds in 2025.

Watermelon production also increased substantially, from approximately 2.47 million hundredweight in 2024 to 4.03 million in 2025.

Those changes matter because the amount of a crop available for sale can influence market prices.

A larger harvest can put downward pressure on prices when supplies exceed demand. A smaller harvest can have the opposite effect.

The relationship is not automatic, however. Farm prices and supermarket prices are separated by processing, packing, transportation, distribution, wholesaling, retailing and other costs.

America’s produce aisle is global

North Carolina’s farms operate within a much larger food system.

USDA estimates that imports supplied 59% of U.S. fresh-fruit availability in 2023, up from 50% in 2007.

For fresh vegetables excluding potatoes, sweet potatoes and mushrooms, imports supplied 35% of U.S. availability in 2023, compared with 20% in 2007.

That does not mean 59% of the fruit on every grocery-store shelf was imported.

The figure measures the national availability of fresh fruit and vegetables and reflects the interaction between domestic production, imports and exports.

It does, however, demonstrate how dependent the U.S. food system has become on international supply.

Mexico is particularly important

Mexico is the dominant foreign supplier for many fruits and vegetables consumed in the United States.

In 2023, Mexico accounted for 51% of U.S. fresh-fruit imports by value and 69% of fresh-vegetable imports by value. Canada accounted for another 2% of fresh-fruit imports and 20% of fresh-vegetable imports.

This relationship is particularly important because the growing seasons in Mexico and the United States can complement one another.

When production of a particular crop is reduced or out of season in the United States, imports can help maintain supplies.

That system helps explain why a North Carolina shopper can find tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and other produce in a supermarket during periods when those crops are not being harvested locally.

The produce in a Charlotte grocery store may have traveled thousands of miles

Consider the grocery store as the final stop in a much larger supply chain.

A North Carolina-grown sweet potato can move from a farm in eastern North Carolina into a regional distribution network and eventually onto a supermarket shelf.

A cucumber sold during another part of the year may have originated outside the United States.

The same is true for many fruits.

USDA’s research shows that imports have become particularly important for commodities including asparagus, avocados, bell peppers, blueberries, broccoli, cauliflower, cucumbers, raspberries, snap beans and tomatoes.

This is one reason the price of produce in North Carolina cannot be explained solely by what is happening on North Carolina farms.

Why produce prices are so volatile

Fresh fruits and vegetables have characteristics that make their prices unusually sensitive to supply disruptions.

Weather

Farmers cannot immediately replace a crop damaged by a freeze, drought, excessive rainfall or extreme heat.

A weather event in one producing region can therefore reduce available supply and increase the importance of other producing regions.

Seasonality

North Carolina has defined growing seasons for many fruits and vegetables.

When a crop is not being harvested locally, supermarkets rely on production from other parts of the country or from international suppliers.

USDA’s seasonal-produce guidance notes that availability varies according to growing conditions and weather.

Transportation

Fresh produce is perishable.

It generally requires harvesting, packing, refrigeration, transportation and distribution within a relatively short period.

A disruption anywhere along that chain can affect availability and cost.

Labor

Growing and harvesting fresh produce is labor-intensive. Labor availability and costs can therefore affect production and harvesting decisions.

International trade

The expansion of North American agricultural trade has made foreign production an increasingly important component of the American produce supply.

USDA’s trade data show that imports are now responsible for a substantial portion of U.S. fresh-fruit and vegetable availability.

North Carolina is both producer and consumer

This creates an important distinction.

North Carolina is not simply a state that buys food from somewhere else.

It is a major agricultural producer that also participates in a national and international distribution system.

The state’s 2024 farm cash receipts illustrate this broader agricultural structure. Animals and animal products represented 73.9% of North Carolina’s farm cash receipts, while crops represented 26.1%. Vegetables and melons accounted for approximately 2.6% of total farm cash receipts, while fruits and nuts accounted for about 0.5%.

That means produce is important to North Carolina agriculture, but it represents only one portion of the state’s much larger farm economy.

For consumers, however, the produce aisle can provide a very different picture of agriculture—one that connects North Carolina farms with growers throughout the United States, Mexico, Canada and other international markets.

What consumers should expect in 2026

USDA currently forecasts that fresh fruit prices will increase approximately 2.9% during 2026, while fresh vegetable prices are projected to increase 5.9%.

Those figures are forecasts rather than guarantees.

USDA’s forecasting system uses statistical models and provides uncertainty ranges because food prices can change rapidly when market conditions shift.

The forecast therefore should not be interpreted as saying every fruit and vegetable in a North Carolina supermarket will become 5.9% more expensive.

Individual commodities can behave very differently.

That is already evident in the 2026 data: fresh tomatoes, lettuce and potatoes had different year-over-year price movements in July, while the overall fresh-vegetable category moved differently from individual crops.

The bigger picture for North Carolina consumers

Over the past three years, the price of fruits and vegetables has become a story about much more than inflation.

It is a story about supply.

North Carolina continues to produce millions of pounds and hundredweights of fruits and vegetables every year. Its farms are important suppliers of sweet potatoes, blueberries, watermelons, cucumbers, cabbage, peppers and other crops.

But the state’s consumers are also part of a national food market increasingly connected to international agriculture.

More than half of U.S. fresh-fruit availability and more than one-third of fresh-vegetable availability came from imports in 2023. Mexico was the largest foreign supplier of both categories.

For a North Carolina shopper, that means the price of a basket of produce can reflect conditions on farms in North Carolina—but it can also reflect weather, harvests, transportation and market conditions hundreds or thousands of miles away.

The modern produce aisle is therefore a map of the food economy.

Some of it begins in North Carolina. Some begins elsewhere in America. And an increasingly important share begins outside the country.

Understanding the price of produce requires understanding all three.